Analisis Permintaan Impor Bawang Putih di Indonesia

Abstract

Garlic (Allium sativum L.) is a strategic food commodity in Indonesia, with an import dependency ratio exceeding 90 percent due to limited domestic production capacity. This study aims to analyze Indonesia's garlic import demand from major supplying countries using the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) approach. Secondary annual time-series data on the volume and value of Indonesia's garlic imports for the period 2011–2025, obtained from UN Comtrade, were grouped into two supplier categories, namely China and the Rest of the World (ROW). The AIDS model was estimated to satisfy the adding-up and homogeneity restrictions, from which own-price, cross-price, and expenditure elasticities were subsequently derived. The results show that Indonesia's garlic import value grew at an average rate of 5.62 percent per year during 2011–2025, with import shares between China and ROW becoming increasingly balanced, indicating early diversification of supply sources. Import demand from both supplier groups is price-elastic and exhibits a substitution relationship. Garlic imports are also classified as a normal good, with an expenditure elasticity close to unity (1.010). These findings underscore that the high price elasticity and substitutive relationship between supplier countries can serve as a basis for government policy in designing supply diversification strategies alongside the strengthening of domestic production, so that Indonesia's dependency on garlic imports can be gradually reduced without generating price instability at the consumer level.