IMPLEMENTASI DATA ANALYTICS DENGAN ORANGE DATA MINING UNTUK PROYEKSI HARGA SAHAM (STUDI KASUS HARGA SAHAM PERBANKAN DI INDONESIA)
Keywords:
stock price projection, data science, net income, macro economicAbstract
The purpose of this research is to determine the accuracy of stock price predictions using analytical data using Orange Data Mining application based on the ARIMAX model. The research sample consists of banking stock in Indonesia, with codes BBCA, BBRI, BMRI, and BBNI, from Q1 2011 to Q2 2023. The four stocks were chosen due to their high valuations in Indonesia and are among the ten stocks with the largest valuations in the country. The best ARIMAX model was selected using statistical rules, and Orange application was used to test the model. Data from Q1 2011 to Q4 2022 was considered as training data, and predictions were made for Q1 and Q2 2023. The results showed high accuracy in stock price predictions with a consistently low MAPE value, which is always less than 10. This research suggests that investors can use Orange application for predicting stock prices based on analytical data.References
Aditya, I. P. (2017). Aplikasi Support Vector Machines pada Pengambilan Keputusan dalam Investasi Saham [Skripsi]. Universitas Indonesia.
Astuti, A. D. (2018). Analisis Pengaruh Rasio Keuangan (CR, ROA, DER, dan TATO) terhadap Trend Harga Saham Studi pada Perusahaan Industri Energi di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2012-2016 [Skripsi]. Universitas Indonesia.
Hendarsih, I., & Harjunawati, S. (2020). Penggolongan Saham Blue Chip berdasarkan Kapitalisasi Pasar pada Bursa Efek Indonesia Tahun 2017-2020. Jurnal Akrab Juara, 5(2), 115-133.
Hozairi, Anwari, & Alim, S. (2021). Implementasi Orange Data Mining untuk Klasifikasi Kelulusan Mahasiswa dengan Model K-Nearest Neighbor, Decision Tree serta Naive Bayes. Jurnal Ilmiah NERO, 6(2), 133-144.
IDX. (2023, October 2). 50 Biggest Market Capitalization. IDX.Co.Id. https://idx.co.id/id/data-pasar/laporan-statistik/digital-statistic/monthly/biggest-market-capitalization-most-active-stocks/biggest-market-capitalization?filter=eyJ5ZWFyIjoiMjAyMyIsIm1vbnRoIjoiMyIsInF1YXJ0ZXIiOjAsInR5cGUiOiJtb250aGx5In0%3D
Indriyanti, Ichsan, N., Fatah, H., Wahyuni, T., & Ermawati, E. (2022). Implementasi Orange Data Mining untuk Prediksi Harga Bitcoin. JURNAL RESPONSIF, 4(2), 118-125. https://investing.com/crypto/bitcoin/historical-
Maysoon, K. (2023). Penerapan Metode Arimax-Garch dalam Meramalkan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) [Skripsi]. Universitas Lampung
Muharrom, M. (2023). Analisis Penggunaan Orange Data Mining untuk Prediksi Harga USDT/BIDR Binance. Bulletin of Information Technology (BIT), 4(2), 178–184. https://doi.org/10.47065/bit.v3i1
Ong, E. (2016). Technical Analysis for Mega Profit. Gramedia Pustaka Utama.
Orange. (2023). Orange Data Mining (3.35.0). orangedatamining.com.
Safuridar, & Asyuratama, Z. (2018). Analisis Indikator Makro Ekonomi terhadap Harga Saham Sektor Perbankan. Jurnal Samudra Ekonomika, 2(2), 137-146.
Silalahi, E., & Sihombing, R. (2021). Pengaruh Faktor Makro Ekonomi terhadap Pergerakan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2017-2020. Jurnal Riset Akuntansi Dan Keuangan, 7(2), 139-152. www.idx.co.id,
Stockbit.com. (2023, October 12). Fundachart BBCA Stock. Stockbit.Com. https://stockbit.com/symbol/BBCA/fundachart
Suroyo, H. (2019). Penerapan Machine Learning dengan Aplikasi Orange Data Mining Untuk Menentukan Jenis Buah Mangga. Seminar Nasional Teknologi & Sains, 1. https://seminar-id.com/semnas-sainteks2019.html
Tombilayuk, A., & Aribowo, F. (2020). Pengaruh Laba Bersih dan Komponen Arus Kas terhadap Harga Saham pada Perusahaan Sektor Infrastruktur, Utilitas, dan Transportas yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2017-2019. Prima Ekonomika, 11(2), 60-81.
Utami, A. P. (2019). Prakiraan Nilai Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan Menggunakan Model ARIMAX-EGARCH (Studi Kasus: Harga Penutupan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan, Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap Dollar Amerika dan Indeks Saham Dow Jones dalam Frekuensi Bulanan. Periode: Januari 2003 - Desember 2017) [Skripsi]. UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta.
Wardani, P. (2019). Analisis Ekonometrik Hubungan Variabel Makroekonomi terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2009-2018 [Skripsi]. Universitas Indonesia